Accuracy of serum neurofilament light to identify contrast-enhancing lesions in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Contrast-enhancing magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) lesions (CELs) indicate acute multiple sclerosis inflammation. Serum biomarkers, neurofilament light (sNfL), and glial fibrillary acidic protein (sGFAP) may increase in the presence of CELs, and indicate a need to perform MRI. OBJECTIVE: We assessed the accuracy of biomarkers to detect CELs. METHODS: Patients with two gadolinium-enhanced MRIs and serum biomarkers tested within 3 months were included (N = 557, 66% female). Optimal cut-points from Bland-Altman analysis for spot biomarker level and Youden's index for delta-change from remission were evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 116 patients (21%) had CELs. A spot sNfL measurement >23.0 pg/mL corresponded to 7.0 times higher odds of CEL presence (95% CI: 3.8, 12.8), with 25.9% sensitivity, 95.2% specificity, operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.61; while sNfL delta-change >30.8% from remission corresponded to 5.0 times higher odds (95% CI: 3.2, 7.8), 52.6% sensitivity, 81.9% specificity, AUC 0.67. sGFAP had poor CEL detection. In patients > 50 years, neither cut-point remained significant. sNfL delta-change outperformed spot levels at identifying asymptomatic CELs (AUC 0.67 vs 0.59) and in patients without treatment escalation between samples (AUC 0.67 vs 0.57). CONCLUSION: Spot sNfL >23.0 pg/mL or a 30.8% increase from remission provides modest prediction of CELs in patients <50 years; however, low sNfL does not obviate the need for MRI.

NF-κB and STAT3 activation in CD4 T cells in pediatric MOG antibody-associated disease.

In this study, we examined CD4 T cell activation using various stimuli in pediatric MOGAD patients (n = 4, untreated remission samples) and healthy controls (n = 5), to understand how both antigen-specific and bystander mechanisms contribute to CD4 T cell activation in MOGAD. TNFα, IL6, and MOG peptide pool were found to activate NF-κB or STAT3 pathways by measuring the expression of regulators (A20, IκBα) and phosphorylated subunits (phospho-p65 and phospho-STAT3) using immunolabeling. Prednisolone reversed activation of both NF-κB and STAT3 and increased the expression of A20 and IκBα. TNFR blocking partially reversed NF-κB activation in certain CD4 T cell subsets, but did not effect STAT3 activation. We observed that activation of NF-κB and STAT3 in response to various stimuli behaves mostly same in MOGAD (remission) and HC. IL6 stimulation resulted in higher STAT3 phosphorylation in MOGAD patients at 75 min, specifically in central and effector memory CD4 T cells (with unadjusted p-values). These findings suggest the potential therapeutic targeting of NF-κB and STAT3 pathways in MOGAD. Further investigation is needed to validate the significance of extended STAT3 phosphorylation and its correlation with IL6 receptor blocker treatment response.

Inflammatory and neurodegenerative serum protein biomarkers increase sensitivity to detect disease activity in multiple sclerosis.

Background/Objectives: Serum proteomic analysis of deeply-phenotyped samples, biological pathway modeling and network analysis were performed to elucidate the inflammatory and neurodegenerative processes of multiple sclerosis (MS) and identify sensitive biomarkers of MS disease activity (DA). Methods: Over 1100 serum proteins were evaluated in >600 samples from three MS cohorts to identify biomarkers of clinical and radiographic (gadolinium-enhancing lesions) new MS DA. Protein levels were analyzed and associated with presence of gadolinium-enhancing lesions, clinical relapse status (CRS), and annualized relapse rate (ARR) to create a custom assay panel. Results: Twenty proteins were associated with increased clinical and radiographic MS DA. Serum neurofilament light chain (NfL) showed the strongest univariate correlation with radiographic and clinical DA measures. Multivariate modeling significantly outperformed univariate NfL to predict gadolinium lesion activity, CRS and ARR. Discussion: These findings provide insight regarding correlations between inflammatory and neurodegenerative biomarkers and clinical and radiographic MS DA. Funding: Octave Bioscience, Inc (Menlo Park, CA).

Clinical validation of a multi-protein, serum-based assay for disease activity assessments in multiple sclerosis.

An 18-protein multiple sclerosis (MS) disease activity (DA) test was validated based on associations between algorithm scores and clinical/radiographic assessments (N = 614 serum samples; Train [n = 426; algorithm development] and Test [n = 188; evaluation] subsets). The multi-protein model was trained based on presence/absence of gadolinium-positive (Gd+) lesions and was also strongly associated with new/enlarging T2 lesions, and active versus stable disease (composite of radiographic and clinical evidence of DA) with improved performance (p < 0.05) compared to the neurofilament light single protein model. The odds of having ≥1 Gd+ lesions with a moderate/high DA score were 4.49 times that of a low DA score, and the odds of having ≥2 Gd+ lesions with a high DA score were 20.99 times that of a low/moderate DA score. The MSDA Test was clinically validated with improved performance compared to the top-performing single-protein model and can serve as a quantitative tool to enhance the care of MS patients.

Early miR-320b and miR-25-3p miRNA levels correlate with multiple sclerosis severity at 10 years: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic demyelinating autoimmune disorder which may cause long-term disability. MicroRNA (miRNA) are stable, non-coding molecules that have been identified in our Comprehensive Longitudinal Investigation of Multiple Sclerosis at the Brigham and Women's Hospital (CLIMB)-cohort, as well as other international cohorts, as potential disease biomarkers in MS. However, few studies have evaluated the association of miRNA expression early in the MS disease course with long-term outcomes. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the potential role of three candidate serum miRNAs previously correlated with MS disability in patients with MS, miR-320b, miR-25-3p and miRNA 486-5p, as early biomarkers of MS disability at 10-year follow-up. MAIN BODY: We included 144 patients with serum obtained within three years of MS onset. miRNA expression was measured by RNA extraction followed by RT-PCR. Demographic, clinical, brain MRI and other biomarkers were collected. The primary outcome was the association between early miRNA expression and retaining benign MS, defined as EDSS ≤ 2 at 10-year follow-up. Among the 144 patients, 104 were benign and 40 were not benign at 10-year follow-up. 89 (62%) were women, with mean age at onset 37.7 (SD: 9.6) years. Patients who retained benign MS had lower values of miR-25-3p (p = 0.047) and higher miR-320b (p = 0.025) values. Development of SPMS was associated with higher miR-320b (p = 0.002) levels. Brain parenchymal fraction at year 10 was negatively correlated with miR-25-3p (p = 0.0004) and positively correlated with miR-320b (p = 0.006). No association was found between miR-486-5p and any outcome, and 10-year T2-lesion volume was not associated with any miRNA. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that miR-320b and miR-25-3p expression are early biomarkers associated with MS severity and brain atrophy. This study provides class III evidence of that miR-320b and miR-25-3p are associated with long-term MS disability which may be a potential tool to risk-stratify patients with MS for early treatment decisions.

miRNA 548a-3p as biomarker of NEDA-3 at 2 years in multiple sclerosis patients treated with fingolimod.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a disabling autoimmune demyelinating disorder affecting young people and causing significant disability. In the last decade, different microRNA (miRNA) expression patterns have been associated to several treatment response therapies such as interferon and glatiramer acetate. Nowadays, there is increasing interest in the potential role of miRNA as treatment response biomarkers to the most recent oral and intravenous treatments. In this study, we aimed to evaluate serum miRNAs as biomarkers of No Evidence of Disease Activity (NEDA-3) at 2 years in patients with relapsing remitting MS (RRMS) treated with fingolimod. MAIN BODY: A Discovery cohort of 31 RRMS patients treated with fingolimod were identified from the CLIMB study and classified as No Evidence of Disease Activity (NEDA-3) or Evidence of Disease Activity (EDA-3) after 2 years on treatment. Levels of miRNA expression were measured at 6 months using human serum miRNA panels and compared in EDA-3 and NEDA-3 groups using the Wilcoxon rank sum test. A set of differentially expressed miRNA was further validated in an independent cohort of 22 fingolimod-treated patients. We found that 548a-3p serum levels were higher levels in fingolimod-treated patients classified as NEDA-3, compared to the EDA-3 group in both the Discovery (n = 31; p = 0.04) and Validation (n = 22; p = 0.03) cohorts 6 months after treatment initiation; miR-548a-3p provided an AUC of 0.882 discriminating patients with NEDA-3 at 2 years in the Validation cohort. CONCLUSION: Our results show differences in miR-548a-3p expression at 6 months after fingolimod start in patients with MS with NEDA-3 at 2 years. These results provide class III evidence of the use of miR-548a-3p as biomarker of NEDA-3 in patients with fingolimod.

Early neurofilament light and glial fibrillary acidic protein levels improve predictive models of multiple sclerosis outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Early risk-stratification in multiple sclerosis (MS) may impact treatment decisions. Current predictive models have identified that clinical and imaging characteristics of aggressive disease are associated with worse long-term outcomes. Serum biomarkers, neurofilament (sNfL) and glial fibrillary acidic protein (sGFAP), reflect subclinical disease activity through separate pathological processes and may contribute to predictive models of clinical and MRI outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of the Comprehensive Longitudinal Investigation of Multiple Sclerosis at the Brigham and Women's Hospital (CLIMB study), where patients with multiple sclerosis are seen every 6 months and undergo Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) assessment, have annual brain MRI scans where volumetric analysis is conducted to calculate T2-lesion volume (T2LV) and brain parenchymal fraction (BPF), and donate a yearly blood sample for subsequent analysis. We included patients with newly diagnosed relapsing-remitting MS and serum samples obtained at baseline visit and 1-year follow-up (both within 3 years of onset), and were assessed at 10-year follow-up. We measured sNfL and sGFAP by single molecule array at baseline visit and at 1-year follow-up. A predictive clinical model was developed using age, sex, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), pyramidal signs, relapse rate, and spinal cord lesions at first visit. The main outcome was odds of developing of secondary progressive (SP)MS at year 10. Secondary outcomes included 10-year EDSS, brain T2LV and BPF. We compared the goodness-of-fit of the predictive clinical model with and without sNfL and sGFAP at baseline and 1-year follow-up, for each outcome by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) or R-squared. RESULTS: A total 144 patients with median MS onset at age 37.4 years (interquartile range: 29.4-45.4), 64% female, were included. SPMS developed in 25 (17.4%) patients. The AUC for the predictive clinical model without biomarker data was 0.73, which improved to 0.77 when both sNfL and sGFAP were included in the model (P = 0.021). In this model, higher baseline sGFAP associated with developing SPMS (OR=3.3 [95%CI:1.1,10.6], P = 0.04). Adding 1-year follow-up biomarker levels further improved the model fit (AUC = 0.79) but this change was not statistically significant (P = 0.15). Adding baseline biomarker data also improved the R-squared of clinical models for 10-year EDSS from 0.24 to 0.28 (P = 0.032), while additional 1-year follow-up levels did not. Baseline sGFAP was associated with 10-year EDSS (ß=0.58 [95%CI:0.00,1.16], P = 0.05). For MRI outcomes, baseline biomarker levels improved R-squared for T2LV from 0.12 to 0.27 (P<0.001), and BPF from 0.15 to 0.20 (P = 0.042). Adding 1-year follow-up biomarker data further improved T2LV to 0.33 (P = 0.0065) and BPF to 0.23 (P = 0.048). Baseline sNfL was associated with T2LV (ß=0.34 [95%CI:0.21,0.48], P<0.001) and 1-year follow-up sNfL with BPF (ß=-2.53% [95%CI:-4.18,-0.89], P = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Early biomarker levels modestly improve predictive models containing clinical and MRI variables. Worse clinical outcomes, SPMS and EDSS, are associated with higher sGFAP levels and worse MRI outcomes, T2LV and BPF, are associated with higher sNfL levels. Prospective study implementing these predictive models into clinical practice are needed to determine if early biomarker levels meaningfully impact clinical practice.

Bioinformatics Analysis of miRNA Sequencing Data.

The bioinformatics analysis of miRNA is a complicated task with multiple operations and steps involved from processing of raw sequence data to finally identifying accurate microRNAs associated with the phenotypes of interest. A complete analysis process demands a high level of technical expertise in programming, statistics, and data management. The goal of this chapter is to reduce the burden of technical expertise and provide readers the opportunity to understand crucial steps involved in the analysis of miRNA sequencing data.In this chapter, we describe methods and tools employed in processing of miRNA reads, quality control, alignment, quantification, and differential expression analysis.

Nasal administration of anti-CD3 monoclonal antibody modulates effector CD8+ T cell function and induces a regulatory response in T cells in human subjects.

Background: Parenteral anti-CD3 Mab (OKT3) has been used to treat transplant rejection and parental administration of a humanized anti-CD3 Mab (Teplizumab) showed positive effects in diabetes. Nasal administration of anti-CD3 Mab has not been carried out in humans. Nasal anti-CD3 Mab suppresses autoimmune diseases and central nervous system (CNS) inflammation in animal models. We investigated the safety and immune effects of a fully humanized, previously uncharacterized nasal anti-CD3 Mab (Foralumab) in humans and its in vitro stimulatory properties. Methods: In vitro, Foralumab were compared to UCHT1 anti-human CD3 mAb. For human administration, 27 healthy volunteers (9 per group) received nasal Foralumab or placebo at a dose of 10ug, 50ug, or 250ug daily for 5 days. Safety was assessed and immune parameters measured on day 1 (pre-treatment), 7, 14, and 30 by FACS and by scRNAseq. Results: In vitro, Foralumab preferentially induced CD8+ T cell stimulation, reduced CD4+ T cell proliferation and lowered expression of IFNg, IL-17 and TNFa. Foralumab induced LAP, TIGIT, and KLRG1 immune checkpoint molecules on CD8+ and CD4+ T cells in a mechanism independent of CD8 T cells. In vivo, nasal Foralumab did not modulate CD3 from the T cell surface at any dose. Immune effects were primarily observed at the 50ug dose and consisted of reduction of CD8+ effector memory cells, an increase in naive CD8+ and CD4+ T cells, and reduced CD8+ T cell granzyme B and perforin expression. Differentially expressed genes observed by scRNAseq in CD8+ and CD4+ populations promoted survival and were anti-inflammatory. In the CD8+ TEMRA population there was induction of TIGIT, TGFB1 and KIR3DL2, indicative of a regulatory phenotype. In the memory CD4+ population, there was induction of CTLA4, KLRG1, and TGFB whereas there was an induction of TGF-B1 in naïve CD4+ T cells. In monocytes, there was induction of genes (HLA-DP, HLA-DQ) that promote a less inflammatory immune response. No side effects were observed, and no subjects developed human anti-mouse antibodies. Conclusion: These findings demonstrate that nasal Foralumab is safe and immunologically active in humans and presents a new avenue for the treatment of autoimmune and CNS diseases.

Younger age at multiple sclerosis onset is associated with worse outcomes at age 50.

OBJECTIVE: Older age at multiple sclerosis (MS) onset has been associated with worse 10-year outcomes. However, disease duration often exceeds 10 years and age-related comorbidities may also contribute to disability. We investigated patients with>10 years disease duration to determine how age at MS onset is associated with clinical, MRI and occupational outcomes at age 50. METHODS: We included patients enrolled in the Comprehensive Longitudinal Investigation of Multiple Sclerosis at the Brigham and Women's Hospital with disease duration>10 years. Outcomes at age 50 included the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), development of secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS), brain T2-lesion volume (T2LV) and brain parenchymal fraction (BPF), and occupational status. We assessed how onset age was independently associated with each outcome when adjusting for the date of visit closest to age 50, sex, time to first treatment, number of treatments by age 50 and exposure to high-efficacy treatments by age 50. RESULTS: We included 661 patients with median onset at 31.4 years. The outcomes at age 50 were worse the younger first symptoms developed: for every 5 years earlier, the EDSS was 0.22 points worse (95% CI: 0.04 to 0.40; p=0.015), odds of SPMS 1.33 times higher (95% CI: 1.08 to 1.64; p=0.008), T2LV 1.86 mL higher (95% CI: 1.02 to 2.70; p<0.001), BPF 0.97% worse (95% CI: 0.52 to 1.42; p<0.001) and odds of unemployment from MS 1.24 times higher (95% CI: 1.01 to 1.53; p=0.037). CONCLUSIONS: All outcomes at age 50 were worse in patients with younger age at onset. Decisions to provide high-efficacy treatments should consider younger age at onset, equating to a longer expected disease duration, as a poor prognostic factor.

Dissection of multiple sclerosis genetics identifies B and CD4+ T cells as driver cell subsets.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune condition of the central nervous system with a well-characterized genetic background. Prior analyses of MS genetics have identified broad enrichments across peripheral immune cells, yet the driver immune subsets are unclear. RESULTS: We utilize chromatin accessibility data across hematopoietic cells to identify cell type-specific enrichments of MS genetic signals. We find that CD4 T and B cells are independently enriched for MS genetics and further refine the driver subsets to Th17 and memory B cells, respectively. We replicate our findings in data from untreated and treated MS patients and find that immunomodulatory treatments suppress chromatin accessibility at driver cell types. Integration of statistical fine-mapping and chromatin interactions nominate numerous putative causal genes, illustrating complex interplay between shared and cell-specific genes. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our study finds that open chromatin regions in CD4 T cells and B cells independently drive MS genetic signals. Our study highlights how careful integration of genetics and epigenetics can provide fine-scale insights into causal cell types and nominate new genes and pathways for disease.

Early Predictors of Clinical and MRI Outcomes Using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) in Multiple Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to identify predictors in common between different clinical and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) outcomes in multiple sclerosis (MS) by comparing predictive models. METHODS: We analyzed 704 patients from our center seen at MS onset, measuring 37 baseline demographic, clinical, treatment, and MRI predictors, and 10-year outcomes. Our primary aim was identifying predictors in common among clinical outcomes: aggressive MS, benign MS, and secondary-progressive (SP)MS. We also investigated MRI outcomes: T2 lesion volume (T2LV) and brain parenchymal fraction (BPF). The performance of the full 37-predictor model was compared with a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-selected model of predictors in common between each outcome by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs). RESULTS: The full 37-predictor model was highly predictive of clinical outcomes: in-sample AUC was 0.91 for aggressive MS, 0.81 for benign MS, and 0.81 for SPMS. After variable selection, 10 LASSO-selected predictors were in common between each clinical outcome: age, Expanded Disability Status Scale, pyramidal, cerebellar, sensory and bowel/bladder signs, timed 25-foot walk ≥6 seconds, poor attack recovery, no sensory attacks, and time-to-treatment. This reduced model had comparable cross-validation AUC as the full 37-predictor model: 0.84 versus 0.81 for aggressive MS, 0.75 versus 0.73 for benign MS, and 0.76 versus 0.75 for SPMS, respectively. In contrast, 10-year MRI outcomes were more strongly influenced by initial T2LV and BPF than clinical outcomes. INTERPRETATION: Early prognostication of MS is possible using LASSO modeling to identify a limited set of accessible clinical features. These predictive models can be clinically usable in treatment decision making once implemented into web-based calculators. ANN NEUROL 2022;92:87-96.

Serum NfL levels in the first five years predict 10-year thalamic fraction in patients with MS.

BACKGROUND: Serum neurofilament light chain (sNfL) levels are associated with relapses, MRI lesions, and brain volume in multiple sclerosis (MS). OBJECTIVE: To explore the value of early serum neurofilament light (sNfL) measures in prognosticating 10-year regional brain volumes in MS. METHODS: Patients with MS enrolled in the Comprehensive Longitudinal Investigations in MS at Brigham and Women's Hospital (CLIMB) study within five years of disease onset who had annual blood samples from years 1-10 (n = 91) were studied. sNfL was measured with a single molecule array (SIMOA) assay. We quantified global cortical thickness and normalized deep gray matter (DGM) volumes (fractions of the thalamus, caudate, putamen, and globus pallidus) from high-resolution 3 T MRI at 10 years. Correlations between yearly sNfL levels and 10-year MRI outcomes were assessed using linear regression models. RESULTS: sNfL levels from years 1 and 2 were associated with 10-year thalamus fraction. Early sNfL levels were not associated with 10-year putamen, globus pallidus or caudate fractions. At 10 years, cortical thickness was not associated with early sNfL levels, but was weakly correlated with total DGM fraction. CONCLUSIONS: Early sNfL levels correlate with 10-year thalamic volume, supporting its role as a prognostic biomarker in MS.

Relapse recovery in multiple sclerosis: Effect of treatment and contribution to long-term disability.

BACKGROUND: Although recovery from relapses in MS appears to contribute to disability, it has largely been ignored as a treatment endpoint and disability predictor. OBJECTIVE: To identify demographic and clinical predictors of relapse recovery in the first 3 years and examine its contribution to 10-year disability and MRI outcomes. METHODS: Relapse recovery was retrospectively assessed in 360 patients with MS using the return of the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), Functional System Scale and neurologic signs to baseline at least 6 months after onset. Univariate and multivariable models were used to associate recovery with demographic and clinical factors and predict 10-year outcomes. RESULTS: Recovery from relapses in the first 3 years was better in patients who were younger, on disease-modifying treatment, with a longer disease duration and without bowel or bladder symptoms. For every incomplete recovery, 10-year EDSS increased by 0.6 and 10-year timed 25-foot walk increased by 0.5 s. These outcomes were also higher with older age and higher baseline BMI. Ten-year MRI brain atrophy was associated only with older age, and MRI lesion volume was only associated with smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Early initiation of disease-modifying treatment in MS was associated with improved relapse recovery, which in turn prevented long-term disability.

Clostridium bolteae is elevated in neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder in India and shares sequence similarity with AQP4.

OBJECTIVE: To understand the role of gut microbiome in influencing the pathogenesis of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders (NMOSDs) among patients of south Indian origin. METHODS: In this case-control study, stool and blood samples were collected from 39 patients with NMOSD, including 17 with aquaporin 4 IgG antibodies (AQP4+) and 36 matched controls. 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) sequencing was used to investigate the gut microbiome. Peripheral CD4+ T cells were sorted in 12 healthy controls, and in 12 patients with AQP4+ NMOSD, RNA was extracted and immune gene expression was analyzed using the NanoString nCounter human immunology kit code set. RESULTS: Microbiota community structure (beta diversity) differed between patients with AQP4+ NMOSD and healthy controls (p < 0.001, pairwise PERMANOVA test). Linear discriminatory analysis effect size identified several members of the microbiota that were altered in patients with NMOSD, including an increase in Clostridium bolteae (effect size 4.23, p 0.00007). C bolteae was significantly more prevalent (p = 0.02) among patients with AQP4-IgG+ NMOSD (n = 8/17 subjects) compared with seronegative patients (n = 3/22) and was absent among healthy stool samples. C bolteae has a highly conserved glycerol uptake facilitator and related aquaporin protein (p59-71) that shares sequence homology with AQP4 peptide (p92-104), positioned within an immunodominant (AQP4 specific) T-cell epitope (p91-110). Presence of C bolteae correlated with expression of inflammatory genes associated with both innate and adaptive immunities and particularly involved in plasma cell differentiation, B cell chemotaxis, and Th17 activation. CONCLUSION: Our study described elevated levels of C bolteae associated with AQP4+ NMOSD among Indian patients. It is possible that this organism may be causally related to the immunopathogenesis of this disease in susceptible individuals.

Ensemble learning predicts multiple sclerosis disease course in the SUMMIT study.

The rate of disability accumulation varies across multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. Machine learning techniques may offer more powerful means to predict disease course in MS patients. In our study, 724 patients from the Comprehensive Longitudinal Investigation in MS at Brigham and Women's Hospital (CLIMB study) and 400 patients from the EPIC dataset, University of California, San Francisco, were included in the analysis. The primary outcome was an increase in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) ≥ 1.5 (worsening) or not (non-worsening) at up to 5 years after the baseline visit. Classification models were built using the CLIMB dataset with patients' clinical and MRI longitudinal observations in first 2 years, and further validated using the EPIC dataset. We compared the performance of three popular machine learning algorithms (SVM, Logistic Regression, and Random Forest) and three ensemble learning approaches (XGBoost, LightGBM, and a Meta-learner L). A "threshold" was established to trade-off the performance between the two classes. Predictive features were identified and compared among different models. Machine learning models achieved 0.79 and 0.83 AUC scores for the CLIMB and EPIC datasets, respectively, shortly after disease onset. Ensemble learning methods were more effective and robust compared to standalone algorithms. Two ensemble models, XGBoost and LightGBM were superior to the other four models evaluated in our study. Of variables evaluated, EDSS, Pyramidal Function, and Ambulatory Index were the top common predictors in forecasting the MS disease course. Machine learning techniques, in particular ensemble methods offer increased accuracy for the prediction of MS disease course.

Identification of TNFAIP3 as relapse biomarker and potential therapeutic target for MOG antibody associated diseases.

MOG-antibody associated disease (MOG-AAD) is a recently recognized demyelinating disorder predominantly affecting children but also occurs in adults, with a relapsing course in approximately 50% of patients. We evaluated peripheral blood mononuclear cells from MOG-AAD patients by flow cytometry and found a strong antigen specific central memory cell (CMC) response with increased Th1 and Th17 cells at the time of a relapse. Transcriptomic analysis of CMCs by three independent sequencing platforms revealed TNFAIP3 as a relapse biomarker, whose expression was down regulated at a relapse compared to remission in MOG-AAD patients. Serum in an additional cohort of patients showed decreased TNFAIP3 levels at relapse compared to remission state in MOG-AAD patients. Our studies suggest that alterations in TNFAIP3 levels are associated with relapses in MOG-AAD patients, which may have clinical utility as a disease course biomarker and therapeutic target.

Time between expanded disability status scale (EDSS) scores.

BACKGROUND: Although the expanded disability status scale (EDSS) is the most commonly used measure of disability for multiple sclerosis, measurement of disability accumulation is complex due to the unequal steps of the scale. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the time between EDSS scores in a large MS cohort from a single center and determine the impact of functional system scores on EDSS transitions. METHODS: 31,394 clinical visits with EDSS scores from 2054 subjects in the CLIMB longitudinal cohort study were included in our analysis. The time to each EDSS score and the time between each EDSS score were calculated using the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimate for interval censored data. For each initial EDSS value, the association between functional status scores and subsequent EDSS value was assessed using a mixed effects linear regression model, and the association with time to EDSS increase was assessed using a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: The median time until EDSS 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 in all subjects were 4.8, 15.1, 28.2, 31.2, and 32.4 years, respectively. The time intervals showed that the disability accumulation intervals from EDSS 4 to 6 were much shorter than the accumulation intervals from EDSS 0 to 3 or from EDSS 6 to 8. For EDSS of 1 or 1.5, pyramidal, cerebellar, sensory, bowel-bladder and mental system scores were associated with higher subsequent EDSS values. For higher EDSS values, only pyramidal and bowel-bladder scores maintained the association. CONCLUSIONS: Time between specific EDSS levels varies considerably. Certain functional system scores have greater predictive power for future EDSS-related disability despite same present EDSS level. These findings will assist in adaptation of the EDSS as an outcome measure to assess MS-related disability in clinical trials.